At the same time, millions of consumers who have lost their jobs to automation are likely to curb their spending. Nearly all developed economies and many developing economies also rely on the government to play a significant role in the financing and delivery of services such as healthcare and education. Further uncertainty surrounds the effects of the pandemic and social distancing on economic activity and on the pace of economic recovery. India remains a potential wild card for additional catch-up growth, although differences in its national governance and economic model make it unlikely to replicate the compressed growth that China experienced. While today the definition of full-time work ranges from 35 to 40 hours in Europe, under the Affordable Care Act, it is already only 30 hours in the US. How to adjust the operating model and revive stalled digital efforts. The most recent trough in 1948 was followed by a rise of more than 200 basis points within two years. By the 1970s and 1980s, however, the social consensus in much of Western Europe and the US turned critical of interventionist governments, and a wave of deregulation and lower taxes followed. From 2000 to 2010, the rate for women fell by 1.3 percentage points. For example, economies that have a high focus on building automation should be able to benefit from the capital investment cycle that automation will trigger. The .gov means it's official. The erosion of the middle class will have major ramifications for those selling big-ticket items, especially housing and autos. Much of the added output potential would be directed back toward meeting investment demand, pushing overall growth rates back up to levels seen in the 1980s and 1990s. Countries with rigid labor markets may experience a slower pace of change and less disruption, but they may suffer from lagging competitiveness and productivity. The civilian noninstitutional population is projected to grow from 251 million in 2015 to 326 million in 2060, an increase of 75 million people. Historically, life spans have increased very consistentlyroughly five years every two decades in advanced economies. In the US between 1984 and 2015, the growth in housing expenditures for preretirees was more than double that of those in the core productive and reproductive stage of life (ages 3054). Then you can access your favorite statistics via the star in the header. Though the tumultuous transition creates serious challenges for businesses and investors, they are not unprecedented. Our surveys provide periodic and comprehensive statistics about the nation. After the global financial crisis, the amount of capital deployed per worker (capital stock) stopped growing, most notably in the US but also in other countries, including the UK and Germany (see Figure 16). Bo Peery was the editor, and Casey Labrack was the graphics editor. This report summarizes results from two rounds of cognitive testing for the 2022 ACS Content Test. Advanced economies' growth rates rose to 1.2% per year in the 1970s and 1980s. In the final chapter of this report, we outline the implications for businesses and investors of this collision of demographics, automation and inequality, and the potential return to a more interventionist state. Not only is the share of older people in the labor force growing, but their labor force participation rates are rising. While we can only speculate on the magnitude of those gains, ongoing medical advances are likely to continue increasing the life span of higher-income individuals faster than those at the lower end at least through the next decade, which in the short run could increase inequality. Ten years later, following the global financial crisis, it is $4.5 trillion. Highly skilled, high-income labor will grow increasingly scarce. You need a Statista Account for unlimited access. For example, in food service, automation that reduces the number of waiters and waitresses in a restaurant by using machines to deliver food and clear tables could also increase the amount of tips per server of those who are not displaced (in markets where tipping is the norm). The Current Population Survey, a monthly survey of households, is conducted by the Census Bureau for the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Robert Shackleton wrote the report. Inequality has many possible causes, including demographics, technological change and government policy. You can only download this statistic as a Premium user. For instance, the annual unemployment rate averages 6.1percent over those 11years in the current projections, whereas it averaged 4.2percent in the January projections. The migration to e-commerce is just automating retail servicesreplacing an entire suite of human functions from the floor salesperson or cashier with a web-based storefront and a payments-processing app. The forces of demographics, automation and income inequality already are in motion. Most of that shift came from the top 20% of income earners. But given the breadth and scale of the demographic imbalances, these levers are unlikely to meaningfully offset declining labor force growth at the global level. The site is secure. Between 1990 and 2015, the life expectancy for a 25-year-old in the US with a college degree or higher increased from 79 years to 84 years; for a 25-year-old American with only a high school degree, it increased marginally from 76 years to 79 years; for those without a high school degree, it actually declined from 74 years to 73 years. The bulk of innovation will likely be in augmenting or replacing existing products or services with automation. We used a balanced sample of more than 130 individual industry and job categories in detailed case studies ranging from nursing assistants and flight attendants to insurance underwriters and management analysts. Out of a workforce of 41,659, Craven Countys labor force participation rate in June 2022 was 60.5%, a slight rise from 59.7% at the beginning of the year. Low fertility rate and low migration of White non-Hispanics relative to other racial groups will contribute to the group's decreasing share in the labor force. The upcoming retirement of the baby boomers, a group that has a large share of white non-Hispanic men, will further lower that groups share of the total labor force. Changes in population growth and labor force participation rates over the next several decades will impact the growth of the labor force. Under those conditions, increased profitability would largely flow to owners of capital and further reduce the share of national income allocated to labor. Because these forces are likely to combine in different wayssometimes reinforcing each other, sometimes offsetting each otherour effort to trace the economic developments throughout the 2020s is a rough sketch. Cobots, which sit alongside humans to enhance labor productivity in manufacturing, are an example of how companies are closing the cost gap. While some cutting-edge treatments today may be limited to the wealthy, broad access to antibiotics and vaccines in the middle of the last century (among other basic advances) had dramatic effects on early-age mortality. The baby boomer generation powered a long but temporary surge in labor force growth. Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of rounding. Though this is arguably cyclical job loss rather than a secular transformation, it indicates the challenge of reabsorbing displaced workers in a short time span. Focusing on the affluent segment is one broad strategic option as this group will gain the most ground early on as automation fuels growth. On the other hand, it is likely to further fuel the need for warehouse and logistics space, as well as increasing demand for small flex space for manufacturing using highly automated factories. Last year available. However, as investment saturation sets in, financial capital ebbs, and new machinery and equipment is left without sufficient demand. It is also likely to be a period in which extremes become more extreme. A large transformation that unfolds at a slower pace allows economies the time to adjust and grow to reabsorb unemployed workers back into the labor force. Chapter 6 focuses on the practical business implications of these trends for leadership teams, including the need to adjust to a macro environment that veers between extremes. Already, effective retirement ages have started to rise, a trend we expect to continue (see the sidebar "Life span expansion will slow"). As the investment wave recedes, it may leave in its wake deeply unbalanced economies in which income is concentrated among those most likely to save and invest, not consume. As automation spreads, large pools of undifferentiated labor should become less valuable as labor becomes a smaller proportion of overall costs. Adobe PDF format. Many other analysts at CBO contributed information about the pandemic and the effects of actions taken in response to it. Two new stages of life have emerged in the 21st century: second adolescence and preretirement (see the figure, "The five ages and stages of life"). This page contains the state and county industry and occupational employment projections for 2030. These gathering forces already pose challenges for businesses and investors. The labor force is projected to increase from 157 million in 2015 to 186 million in 2060, an increase of 29 million. The unemployment rate continues to drift downward, reaching 4.4percent by the end of 2030. Governments may expand their role in the marketplace, similar to what was seen in the West between the end of World War II and the early 1980s, by shifting resources as well as becoming a direct buyer of goods and services. Across geographies, the decline in manufacturing costs due to the next level of industrial automation is likely to negatively impact large exporters that compete based on lower labor costs. Growth at that point would become deeply demand constrained, exposing the full magnitude of labor market disruption temporarily hidden from view by the investment boom. When we take into account off-the-books spending through public health systems such as the UK's NHS or Medicare in the US, households 75 years and older consume nearly as much as households headed by a 35-year-old, albeit in very different categories (see Figure 13). Second, the relative cost of the goods produced by automation fell, increasing overall material standards of living. In 2010, the estimated payback period in China for replacing workers was about 5.3 years. Automation could fuel a 10- to 15-year boom followed by a bust. Jobless workers may become entrepreneurs. And even modeling a rapid rate of convergence of life span improvement for the bottom 40% of the income spectrum to that of the top income bracket, the incremental impact on overall average life span after age 50 nets out to only slightly more than one year by 2030 (see Figure 34). Under that scenario, the natural demographic cycle in the labor marketthe entry of new workers and the exit of retiring workersalso helps rebalance the workforce toward new roles and away from declining occupations. Real GDP recovers rapidly over the next several quarters in CBOs projections, rising from more than 6 percent below its potential at the end of 2020 to less than 4percent below its potential at the end of 2021. The scope was relatively small, but the effect was highly accelerated: Employment in the sector shrank by an average of 600,000 workers a year over four years, and it has taken about seven years of economic growth to reabsorb those workers. During this period, any changes projected in the labor force are mainly the result of compositional changes of the population. Middle-class markets are likely to erode. After the war, it dropped to around 35%, until the 1980s, when it commenced the climb to its current level of 47% (see Figure 29). More government in more places is likely. Labor income as a share of GDP averages 58.1percent, which is low compared with its historical average and reflects trends that were under way before the pandemic. Directly accessible data for 170 industries from 50 countries Japan's data also illustrates the trend despite its reputation for relatively more equal distributions; data does not exist prior to World War II, but the level of pretax income going to the top 10% is 41% to 43%, up from 30% to 35% in the 1950s through 1970s. In the second quarter of 2020, the coronavirus pandemic and associated social distancing triggered a sharp contraction in output, ending the longest economic expansion since World WarII. Manufacturers that suffer a rapid deterioration in a trade relationship will have a powerful incentive to replace that capacity as quickly as possible, which may speed the adoption of automation. Quick Analysis with our professional Research Service: Toplists & Rankings: Best Employers Portal. Leadership teams that start thinking now about shifting resources to build resilience will be better able to navigate the broad arc of the coming transformation and cope with increased volatility as the forces of demographics, automation and inequality collide. Business leaders, investors and heads of organizations and institutions will need to look beyond traditional targets and goals and develop the ability to adjust to a changing and volatile macroeconomic environment. This article presents the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics employment and output projections for the 202030 period. Official definitions pertaining to [name of topic, survey, etc.]. https:// ensures that you are connecting to the official website and that any Historic labor force growth rates would have contributed $8.6 trillion to GDP growth over that period, but slower labor force growth will produce only $2.3 trillion. Social media marketing manager, for example, was hardly a job category 10 years ago; today it is among the fastest-growing fields. One lesson history teaches is that severe economic disruption can prompt countries to rethink the role of government in the marketplace. This outcome echoes the more bullish technology-as-solution viewpoints with which we largely agreebut only over a much longer time horizon, past the end of the horizon discussed in this report. In this Spotlight, we look at projected long-term trends in the growth, size, and composition of the labor force. Other new jobs focus on simple tasks such as tagging or categorizing images that eventually go into massive photo databases that are used to train automated image recognition. But the trade-off is that this flexibility, including a weaker social safety net, may increase income and wealth inequality and ultimately undercut growth if demand constraints are not addressed. Supplemental data are posted on the Congressional Budget Offices website (www.cbo.gov/publication/56442). Governments are likely to increase public spending over the long term in social services and public infrastructure. Older households generally consume more than they produce, making up the difference through financial savings. Even today, after wages, increased pension costs are the biggest cause of increased Chinese military spending. Premium goods manufacturers will tap automation technologies to offer customers a better experience, higher customer intimacy and greater personalization. African American, Hispanic, and female workers have been hit particularly hard, in part because they make up a disproportionate share of the workforce in certain industries with jobs that involve elevated risks of exposure to the coronavirus. One risk here is that guaranteed private or government pensions that similarly relied on financial asset inflation to meet future obligations will become highly strained or could break, especially at subnational levels of government. facts. Overview and forecasts on trending topics, Industry and market insights and forecasts, Key figures and rankings about companies and products, Consumer and brand insights and preferences in various industries, Detailed information about political and social topics, All key figures about countries and regions, Everything you need to know about Consumer Goods, Identify market potentials of the digital future, Insights into the world's most important technology markets, Health Market Outlook Faced with rising inequality, governments are likely to become more interventionist, using higher taxes and regulation to manage market imbalances. In 2022, the share of natural increase and immigration in projections of the resident population will be equal and at 50 percent. 1. information you provide is encrypted and transmitted securely. At lower prices, we will see increased demand for some products, which will offset some displacement. Lock The EEO Tabulation, based on American Community Survey data, highlights the gender, racial, and ethnic diversity of the American labor force. Banks still employ bank tellers, for instance, although their roles have been redefined away from just counting cash and checks. It does not take into account the actual market conditions that would lead businesses to automate all work that could be automated. Governments, in turn, will require a pool of income to tax in order to fund the transfers. But delivering broad access to new treatments can take years. By Karen Harris, Austin Kimson and Andrew Schwedel. The number of people projected to be added as a result of net international migration is nearly twice as much as the natural increase. Data on the number of federal, state, and local civilian government employees and their gross monthly payroll for March of the survey year. The relative share of income apportioned to capital vs. labor has increased, particularly in recent decades across the G7 countries, from a trough in the 1970s. Demographics, automation and inequality could dramatically reshape our world in the 2020s and beyond. The unemployment rate is projected to peak at over 14percent in the third quarter of this year and then to fall quickly as output increases in the second half of 2020 and throughout 2021. Today, the business model of many retail companies in advanced economies focuses on premium goods and servicesa model based on high margins, a high degree of customization, a special experience and high intimacy. One alternative is for-profit educational systems and corporate training programs. Governments could provide incentives to employers to retain human workers by lowering the total cost of an employeefor example, by reducing or eliminating employer-paid payroll taxes or even directly subsidizing employment. In contrast, employment increased 28% in hospitals, while it declined by about the same amount in auto manufacturing (see Figure 17). This form of inequality is arguably a less pressing societal challenge because it is transient. The bulge of baby boomers in high-wealth and high-income years vs. millennials in low-wealth and low-income years creates the mathematical basis for rising inequality. Many already confront talent shortages and rapidly evolving automation, along with pressure to make the right investments now or risk being left behind. By contrast, a shift in the balance of transfers to working-age households may diminish opportunities for senior-focused goods and services. Commuting including means of transportation, time of departure, mean travel time to work, vehicles available, distance traveled, and expenses. Organizations that can absorb shocks and change course quickly will have the best chance of thriving in the turbulent 2020s and beyond. This brief examines the different types of pay received during 2013: wage and salary and extra earnings (commission, tips, overtime, and bonus payments). For businesses and investors, labor scarcity at the high end and labor abundance among mid- to low-skilled workers could create an opportunity to support the migration of workers toward new higher-skilled roles. The .gov means it's official. Despite many technological innovations that will increase the capacity for goods and services, the inability of effective demand to keep pace may ultimately reduce growth. The share of natural increase in projections of the resident population is declining, while the share of immigration in projections of the resident population is increasing. Second adolescence: The rising cost of adulthood and higher college enrollment have created a transition phase between childhood and adulthood (ages 1829). However, we believe that our base-case scenario of rapid deployment is more likely. Similarly, industries will face a different array of challenges based on their particular value chains, labor forces and national governments. Bain Macro Trends Group analysis indicates that deceleration in labor force growth in OECD countries could result in a $5.4 trillion GDP shortfall by 2030 (see Figure 12). Businesses with products that are heavily reliant on financing, including large equipment and aerospace, need to consider how rising interest rates could affect their customers. Labor Market Information Center Statewide South Dakota Employment Projections by Industry 2020-2030. In China, where income inequality has significantly increased in recent years, the top 10% own more than 67% of wealth. Business leaders and investors thinking of taking a wait-and-see approach may find there will be very little time to react. Office spaces could be reconfigured from large tracts of cubicle farmsideal for doing individualized repetitive workto more collaborative and creative space for doing work that is far beyond the purview of automation, at least for the next 20 years. In total, changes to labor force growth contribute $3 trillion, leaving a $5.4 trillion growth gap that can only be closed by a sharp increase in the productivity growth rate. Civilian noninstitutional population and labor force levels. A surge in credit purchases would make it increasingly difficult to judge where the affluent tier begins. A decline in the number and share of White non-Hispanics is accompanied by faster growth of other racial and ethnic groups. Resilient businesses invest in their ability to quickly recover from disruptions and regain momentum. Intergenerational conflicts will potentially rise, drawing in businesses. We expect rising investment in physical infrastructure, particularly in the electrical grid and telecommunications. Many people assume that birth rates continue to fall as incomes increase. Our analysis shows that demand for healthcare in the US is likely to approximately double by 2025 vs. 2015 levels based on demographics alone. In fact, as competition for talent increases, standard employment offers may disappear. Companies can prepare for such shifts by making resiliency a high strategic priority and actively managing and monitoring macro risks. Systems will vary widely. Yet, the growing gap between the majority of workers who suffer automation's negative impact and the highly skilled few who benefit from it is likely to increase income inequality dramatically. Bain Partners Karen Harris and Joe Terino discuss the macroeconomic impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, including its ramifications for supply chain strategy. Our analysis shows that the collision of these forces could trigger economic disruption far greater than we have experienced over the past 60 years (see Figure 1). We also discuss some alternate possibilities in subsequent chapters, recognizing that technology and innovation have produced unexpected outcomes over the past century. Civilian labor force participants and projections in the United States for 2001, 2011, 2021, and 2031, by age (in 1,000s) [Graph]. Those overall growth rates are robust compared with recent history. The authors express their appreciation to the many members of Bain & Company who provided insights for this report, including James Allen, Jennifer Binder-Le Pape, Chris Brahm, Paul Cichocki, Dale Cottrell, Tamar Dor-Ner, Aaron Cheris, Herbert Blum, George Cogan, David Crawford, Orit Gadiesh, Mark Gottfredson, Weiwen Han, Mike McKay, Henrik Naujoks, Raj Pherwani, Darrell Rigby, James Root, Tom Shannon, Velu Sinha, Joo Soares, Tim van Biesen, Suzanne Tager and Gary Turner. Between now and 2031, the labor force participation rate is expected to decrease for almost all Since 2010, the labor force participation rate of men has fallen another 2.1 percentage points. But there are many practical steps companies can take to assess how a vastly changed macroeconomic landscape might affect their business and how to position themselves for change. Growth of real GDP and of real potential GDP is measured from the fourth quarter of one calendar year to the fourth quarter of the next. Baby boomer spending in retirement years will reach its peak in the coming decade before beginning to taper off in the 2030s. make sure you're on a federal government site. Get full access to all features within our Corporate Solutions. Analytical, administrative or clerical service sector jobs with highly repetitive or rule-based tasks are surprisingly easy to automate. The U.S. Census Bureau currently collects data on industry, occupation, and class of worker for Americans in the labor force on several surveys. Even today, the negative economic effects of this transition linger in the Rust Belt region of the US and areas of Western Europe. Only two of the four broad opportunities linked to the next phase of automation are technology based. Real GDP and employment are projected to rebound quickly in response. Please direct questions and comments about this report to Bain-Macro-Trends-Group@bain.com. 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