Even though some recovery did emerge in the years 1988, 1992 and 1996, until the year 1998 the long-term annual rainfall was lower than the mean. 2011). Geography: Definition, Scope and Themes, 1.2. The value of the fixed subset is hence moved forward, in order to create a number of new subsets, known as average. The production of beans was below 18-year mean in nine years out of 18 years production periods, as indicated in Table5, which accounts for 50% of the total bean production; while in respect of kiremit rainfall pea, chickpea, and lentil production (50, 50 and 55.5% respectively) were below the 18-year mean. Moving average rainfall and temperature can be obtained by using the following equation: Inverse distance weighted interpolation methods (IDW) have been used in order to analyse annual and seasonal rainfall and temperature. Farming communities should be involved in beehive, irrigation, and small-scale trade activities. In administrative terms, it is located in Basona Worena District, in the North Showa zone of Amhara regional state (Figure1), situated 180 km northeast of the capital city, Addis Ababa. The focus of this study is to investigate the spatiotemporal variability and trends in rainfall and temperature in Alwero watershed in the western part of Ethiopia using a dense network of 4 4 km gridded data (558 points) reconstructed from weather stations and meteorological satellite records which spatially covers the watershed. The details of these stations have already been presented in Table2. 2015). Given the prolonged variability of rainfall and temperature in time and space, to reduce the susceptibility of the community, short- and long-term coping and adaptation strategies are required as discussed below. Fine-scale hydrological simulations driven by the global model results should reproduce these trends. Some of the studies conducted are based on areal averages of spatial climatic variability (Seleshi & Demaree 1995; Osman & Sauerborn 2001). Likewise, as presented in Table2, the distribution of annual rainfall has shown to be very low with high PCI. Even though the rainfall indicates seasonal and inter-annual variability, the area is characterized by a bimodal rainfall regime, with maximum rainfall concentration during kiremit (summer) season, which extends from June to September. Rock and Mineral Resources of Ethiopia, CHAPTER THREE THE TOPOGRAPHY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 3.2. The spatial distribution of temperature in Ethiopia is primarily determined by altitude andlatitude. Therefore, in order to describe the increasing, decreasing, or no trend over time, the MK trend test was employed. In the rainfall distribution during belg and kiremit it was found that there was a moderate concentration of precipitation throughout the seasons, which shows that there is no uniform distribution, whereas during the bega season a significant change in the PCI was shown, thus the concentration of precipitation is increasing and rainfall has become more erratic. Throughout the year, 1,160 mm (46 in) of rain fall, with a maximum from June to September, which is the only remarkably rainy period. In kiremit season, rain is essential but it extends to the bega season during the harvesting stage. The results revealed that the magnitude of significantly increasing trend and variability was observed in mean annual rainfall for DB station (at 0.28 mm/year and 1.07%). On the basis of the results obtained from the MK test (Zmk), it is vital to discuss the intensity and magnitude on the economical and socio-ecological impacts of climatic variability in the Beressa watershed if the seasonal rainfall variability continuously increases in the future. During the belg (small rainy) season the subdivision indicates a slightly increasing rainfall trend and the bega season (dry season) shows a negative trend, as already presented in Figure2. Therefore, depending on the historical trend of rainfall variability and prolonged temperature increase, appropriate coping and adaptation strategies need to be encouraged. Mainly, the regional topography and seasonal evolution of the large-scale circulation determined the geographical distribution of rainfall in Ethiopia (Diro et al., 2011).Global and regional change of the weather systems and the topographic variation together with the seasonal cycles are reason or major cause for the spatial variability of . Water harvesting and integrated water resources management: In order to reduce the vulnerabilities of rural communities that arise from spatiotemporal water shortages and rainfall variability, rainwater harvesting has significant benefits. From Figure3, it is confirmed that the maximum temperature has continuously increased by about 1.10 C, whereas the minimum temperature has increased by about 0.70 C. 2016). During these seasons, rainfall is more highly variable than the main rainy season of the area. Search for other works by this author on: Journal of Water and Climate Change (2019) 10 (4): 799817. According to Anderson (1942), in order to exclude the influence of serial correlation, before using MK test statistics, serial autocorrelation is tested by Lag-I autocorrelation using different levels of significance (0.01, 0.05 and 0.1%). Results from the spatial analysis show that the greatest increase in the number of consecutive dry days is around Siavonga, Kasama and Isoka, up to the border of Zambia and Tanzania. Autumn and Spring rainfall regionsThe region comprises areas receiving rain following the influence of southeasterly winds. The analysis of vulnerability related to climate changes in Ethiopia implies that in the coming decades climate variability and volatility will threaten the social and economic order (damage to natural resources, agricultural productivity, water resources and ecosystems); therefore, the incidence and intensity of drought and famine occurrence is likely to increase. 2014). In the tropics, the daily range of temperature is higher and theannual range is small, whereas the reverse is true in the temperate latitudes. Finally, Pearson correlation analysis between climatic variables and crop production was analysed. Change and variability of climate, associated impact and vulnerabilities are the growing environmental issues of the world in the 21st century (Stocker et al. The majorcontrols determining its distributions are latitude and cloud cover. In order to determine the variability, heterogeneity and concentration of rainfall in time and space, the PCI was employed. Out of seven stations, long-term annual maximum temperature has shown a significantly increasing trend (three stations at 5% significance level and two stations at 10% significance level). Fluctuating productivity and hence food insecurity for the area is due to long-term variability in the annual and seasonal rainfall. In this study, to manage the data quality, data series were plotted in order to identify the outliers. During this season, the south easterliesfrom Indian ocean showers the lowlands in southeastern part of Ethiopia.iii. The problem is high in developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the majority of the population live on rainfed agriculture. The annual maxima of 1 d and consecutive 5 d precipitation are also projected to increase. As presented in Table3, the Sen's slope estimator indicates an upward trend in four stations and a downward trend in three stations for annual rainfall. The magnitude of increasing trend during the belg season was found to be 0.40 mm/year and 30.00% in DB station and a significantly decreasing trend was found to be 0.12 mm/year and 10.00 in GIN station. This process is repeated for the whole data sequence. The annual average temperature of the area is 19.7 C. In this study, the spatiotemporal variability of Ethiopian soil moisture (SM) has been characterized, and its local and remote influential driving factors are investigated . 2005). Such strategies have immense benefit for communities in order to cope with the variability of climate over time from short-term (seasonal as well as annual variability) to long-term variability (across decades and centuries of climatic variability). In this season, the effect of the northeast trade wind is very muchreduced. Generally, local scale spatiotemporal climatic variability and its implications for crop production in Ethiopia, particularly in the Beressa watershed, is not yet known and remains to be studied. Our study provides a novel overview of expected climate trends in Zambia, which can act as guidelines for strategic planning of flood and drought prevention. Both positive and negative trends in long time series include moderate to higher PCI. The calculated PCI for seasonal as well as inter-annual rainfall distribution for the spatiotemporal time series is shown in Table2. Topographic map of the Ziway Lake Basin. However, during bega season the trend of all stations was downward. Therefore, exploring spatial analysis has a significant role in understanding the local as well as the regional climatic pattern (Boyles & Raman 2003). Because of the rainfall-dependent farming practice, farmers are always worried about the duration and intensity of rainfall. As the shift takesplace, equatorial westerlies from the south and southwest invade most parts of Ethiopia bringingmoist winds.However, these winds decrease the length of rainy seasons and magnitudes on the line of theshift. Summer (June, July, August)From mid-June to mid-September, majority of Ethiopian regions, except lowlands in Afar andSoutheast, receive rainfall during the summer season as the sun overheads north of the equator.High pressure cells develop on the Atlantic and Indian Oceans around the tropic of CapricornAlthough, the Atlantic contributes a lot, the Indian Oceans is also sources of rainfall. 2002; Suryavanshi et al. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Seasonal or Temporal VariabilitiesWhat winds bring summer rainfall for Ethiopian highlands?The rainfall is highly variable both in amount and distribution across regions and seasons.The seasonal and annual rainfall variations are results of the macro-scale pressure systemsand monsoon flows which are related to the changes in the pressure systems discussed in theprevious sections of this chapter. Multi-model average (MMA) projections additionally indicate continued trends towards more extreme conditions consistent with a warmer, wetter climate. Figure 1. Increase of Extreme Drought over Ethiopia under Climate Warming, Trend Analysis of Hydroclimatic Historical Data and Future Scenarios of Climate Extreme Indices over Mono River Basin in West Africa, Temperature Projections over the Indus River Basin of Pakistan Using Statistical Downscaling, Trend and Sensitivity Analysis of Reference Evapotranspiration in the Senegal River Basin Using NASA Meteorological Data, Assessment of Climate Change Impact on Reservoir Inflows Using Multi Climate-Models under RCPsThe Case of Mangla Dam in Pakistan, Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources of the Bheri River Basin, Nepal, Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya, Climate change impacts on land use in Gadaref and North Kordofan States and future Desert sheep distribution in Sudan, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, West Africa, Trends and Changes in Recent and Future Penman-Monteith Potential Evapotranspiration in Benin (West Africa), Seasonal Variability of Historical and Projected Future Climate in the Kathmandu Valley, Assessing Future Impacts of Climate Change on Streamflow within the Alabama River Basin, Prediction of Climate Change Effects on Plantain Yield in Ondo State, Nigeria, Improving Hydro-Climatic Projections with Bias-Correction in Sahelian Niger Basin, Estimation of Hydrological Components under Current and Future Climate Scenarios in Guder Catchment, Upper Abbay Basin, Ethiopia, Using the SWAT, Statistical downscaling of global circulation models to assess future climate changes in the Black Volta basin of Ghana, Estimation of the Impact of Climate Change on Water Resources Using a Deterministic Distributed Hydrological Model in Cte dIvoire: Case of the Aghien Lagoon, Climate Change Impact on Flood Frequency and Source Area in Northern Iran under CMIP5 Scenarios, Water Quality Sustainability Evaluation under Uncertainty: A Multi-Scenario Analysis Based on Bayesian Networks, Detection and attribution of seasonal temperature changes in India with climate models in the CMIP5 archive, Statistical analysis of extreme weather events in the Diyala River basin, Iraq, Evaluating the impact of climate change on extreme temperature and precipitation events over the Kashmir Himalaya, Recurrence Spectra of European Temperature in Historical Climate Simulations, Are we using the right fuel to drive hydrological models? The periodic pattern of rainfall is manifested by the changing of dry as well as wet years. The principal sources of uncertainty for the indicators and modelling results are discussed and, where appropriate, reflected in the assessments. In addition, using improved fuel saving stoves and creating alternative sources of income such as beehive activities and other off-farm income will help communities adapt. 2018 May 30;190(6):368. doi: 10.1007/s10661-018 . Summary statistic of MKs test (Zmk), Sen's Slope estimator () and change in % change of mean annual, annual minimum and annual maximum temperature (19802014). Most of the studies about rainfall and temperature characteristics are limited by short-term and long-term time series available for most parts of the regions. It builds on, among others, on the recommendations of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report, but a substantial amount of information that became available afterwards has also been included.While this study is not meant to be a comprehensive overview of all aspects of climate change impact on the RMs economy it does reflect the breadth and depth of researches that had been done in the RM to date, and it provides a link between a global phenomenon and the sectors development issues facing the country. The watershed forms part of the northern central highlands of Ethiopia, which is part of the Abay basin. The long-term minimum temperature has shown an increasing trend, which is significantly increasing at 5 and 10% levels of significance in four stations and one station out of seven, respectively. Do we have dynamics in temperature and rainfall in Ethiopia? The monthly maximum and minimum temperatures are for the same points and girds, but cover the period 1981-2011. Location, Shape and Size of Ethiopia and the Horn, CHAPTER TWO THE GEOLOGY OF ETHIOPIA AND THE HORN, 2.2. Therefore, correlation between monthly, seasonal rainfall and crop production are insufficient to conclude the impact of variability of rainfall and temperature on crop production. Rainfall and temperature trends detection is vital for water resources management and decision support systems in agro-hydrology. Observed Data Thus, the rainfall system in Ethiopia is characterized by spatial and temporalvariabilities.Rainfall in Ethiopia is the result is influenced by the position of Intertropical Convergence Zone(ITCZ). Summer rainfall regionThis region comprises almost all parts of the country, except the southeastern and northeasternlowlands. The variation for the belg season is presented in Figure2. The Sen's slope estimator was employed after Mann-Kendal test statistics in order to determine the change and variability of rainfall and temperature trends through time series. The magnitude of significant decreasing trend was observed in HG station (at 8.62 mm/year and 27.88%). The CHIRPS was developed by the Climate Hazards Group (CHG) at the University of California (Knapp et al. The CMIP5 datasets were statistically downscaled by using the climate model data for hydrologic modeling (CMhyd) tool and bias corrected using the distribution mapping method available in the CMhyd tool. Extreme precipitation and streamflow events are expected to become more frequent. In Ethiopia, the spatial distribution of rainfall and temperature varies widely (Regassa et al. For instance, the variability, intensity and duration of temperature and rainfall affect crop production, especially for developing countries, particularly sub-Saharan countries in which the livelihoods of the population are dependent on subsistence and rainfed farming (Hulme et al. The spatiotemporal rainfall and temperature distribution are presented in Figures4 and 5 respectively. Spatiotemporal Distribution of TemperatureAltitude is an important element in determining temperature of Ethiopia and the Horn. Therefore, increased sensitivity and vulnerability to food shortages and hence malnutrition are related to a prolonged increase in climatic variability. In the study area, June is the sowing period for barley and wheat crops. Ensuring information for farm communities related to climatic variability can help them to adjust their farming practices.
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